QUALIFIED CORPUS
775
Current Luck v5 files from 775 stored public players.
ReferenceData Lab
PUBLIC DATA LAB
Each dot is one public player file. The charts compare long-run account results, the newest stored 1v1 sample, model-adjusted skill, and the luck score. This is descriptive analysis: correlation can reveal a pattern, but it cannot prove why that pattern exists.
QUALIFIED CORPUS
775
Current Luck v5 files from 775 stored public players.
Luck v5
54.1
775 / 775 files
Rig v4
48.2
107 / 775 files
Skill score
52.4
775 / 775 files
LIVE STREAK TIMING
Same windows after 2, 3 and 4 wins or losses as the player report, but each bar is the average of players currently published on the site. Every player gets one vote, however many battles they have.
After 2 wins · next game
309 players · 2,167 matchups
53.2%
-0.4 pts vs their own average
After 3 wins · next game
284 players · 1,159 matchups
52.9%
-0.9 pts vs their own average
After 4 wins · next 4
234 players · 2,090 matchups
52.5%
-1.9 pts vs their own average
The white mark is those same players' usual model win chance. Red ending to its left means the matchups were harder after the streak; the result of the measured game never enters the bar.
Total harder-matchup shift
+1.1 pts
Equal-weight average of the 2-, 3- and 4-win rows above.
Compatible with trophy movement
+0.8 pts
Share absorbed after controlling each player's Trophy Road position and opponent trophy distance.
Other part unexplained (holy rig?)
+0.3 pts
What remains after the trophy controls. Funny label, serious caveat: unexplained is not proof of intent.
Based on 315 players and 19,902 model-covered battles. Results create the streak windows; model win chance measures matchup difficulty. This is observational, not proof that matchmaking reacts deliberately.
SEE METHOD AND LIVE RESULTSTRONGEST LINEAR SIGNAL
Luck v5 × Rig v4
weak negative (r -0.34)
"Strongest" only means the largest absolute Pearson coefficient among the discovery views below — the two diagnostic views (model calibration, evidence funnel) are excluded because their relationships exist by construction. It does not make the relationship causal or necessarily stable.
HOW TO READ THE NUMBER
-1
opposite
0
no line
+1
together
The dashed line is the best linear fit. Dot colors show the luck verdict: red is more rigged, purple is neutral, gold is more blessed. Every dot links to its full case file.
POPULATION SHAPE
Ten equal-width bins show the full qualified corpus. Missing Rig or Skill values stay missing and reduce coverage; they are never replaced with a neutral 50.
SCORE DISTRIBUTION
SCORE DISTRIBUTION
SCORE DISTRIBUTION
SCORE ATLAS
Each cell is a Pearson coefficient computed on files carrying both measures. Red moves in opposite directions, gold moves together. Click any off-diagonal cell to inspect its dots.
INTERACTIVE SCATTER LAB
Statistics always use every eligible file. Only rendered dots are bounded for browser performance. Exploratory choices never rewrite the headline signal.
LIVE EXPLORER
Missing values are excluded pair by pair. Dashed white line is the best linear fit; purple guides mark neutral score values.
r -0.34
107 players
Weak negative relationship: the two measures tend to move in opposite directions.
12% shared linear variation
EXTREME PROFILES
Comparing 258 bottom-third and 258 top-third files by Luck v5.
BOTTOM THIRD
28–51
258 files · mean 45.8
TOP THIRD
57–85
258 files · mean 63.2
Largest standardized gap: Rig v4, |d|=1.03. Descriptive only; grouping does not establish cause.
PLAYER-LEVEL READOUT
Showing 30 of 775 loaded files
| Player | Career WR | Sample WR | Expected | Luck | Rig | Skill | Battles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fsk007#QJGG9GCV0 | 46.5% | 52.0% | 58.0% | 58 | 35 | 22 | 200 |
| antoine#229QUYGPYQ | 48.2% | 31.0% | 29.0% | 40 | 59 | 56 | 200 |
| CODE Sweaty#9GRULPJQ | 58.4% | 59.0% | 50.0% | 52 | — | 92 | 200 |
| Nerf Witch#V80VR9UVQ | 54.7% | 51.0% | 56.0% | 57 | — | 25 | 200 |
| EteRNalCorRIn#VRQ02VGPL | 51.9% | 48.0% | 43.0% | 51 | 73 | 76 | 200 |
| Milo#YYGV80V0V | 46.7% | 51.0% | 42.0% | 50 | — | 92 | 200 |
| ke#8GY0V0YG | 48.7% | 52.0% | 56.0% | 47 | 57 | 30 | 200 |
| GGheroicuryu#VJ28CCYJR | 44.8% | 25.0% | 27.0% | 49 | — | 38 | 200 |
| jeff#PV2QJJCJ | 49.0% | 48.0% | 49.0% | 51 | 55 | 41 | 200 |
| ArmoShaw#208PGYCGVU | 51.0% | 45.0% | 62.0% | 85 | — | 1 | 200 |
| DRICKING KILLER#QUYCYRPQY | 51.9% | 55.0% | 58.0% | 55 | 34 | 33 | 200 |
| V1s3r10n#RLRVPL0C | 49.4% | 52.0% | 52.0% | 50 | 22 | 45 | 200 |
| DreiDeutiger#9GP8GLJQ | 55.4% | 50.0% | 51.0% | 60 | — | 42 | 200 |
| Evil_Krillin~#VRLUYGC0U | 42.1% | 21.0% | 44.0% | 42 | 43 | 1 | 200 |
| LunArSoNic⚡#VRR8PVLLG | 56.4% | 44.0% | 42.0% | 46 | 59 | 62 | 200 |
| louka#20VPJCR9R0 | 51.0% | 55.0% | 42.0% | 51 | 79 | 99 | 200 |
| vwuilles#LR0Q98CQ | 49.3% | 44.0% | 59.0% | 65 | 54 | 1 | 200 |
| Hippogriff65#20PPY0G8G9 | 43.9% | 40.0% | 35.0% | 55 | 60 | 74 | 200 |
| porax#8U9PPUQRL | 47.1% | 39.0% | 48.0% | 53 | — | 5 | 200 |
| MysticMikasa#VRURURUP2 | 37.7% | 23.0% | 47.0% | 42 | 64 | 1 | 200 |
| Brandon2r#JLLVU9G92 | 52.0% | 39.0% | 50.0% | 56 | 49 | 1 | 200 |
| lindasdrunk#VYL82YL9J | 49.2% | 49.0% | 57.0% | 57 | 36 | 10 | 200 |
| 牛逼#VC2CLUL82 | 48.9% | 40.0% | 39.0% | 51 | 54 | 57 | 200 |
| BenYii#90VLGL | 51.4% | 47.0% | 53.0% | 52 | 63 | 21 | 200 |
| Winry38#VRL9L9UUL | 42.8% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 41 | 63 | 52 | 200 |
| Tobi#229PLUPQG9 | 36.6% | 33.0% | 29.0% | 51 | — | 72 | 200 |
| Tefin#80P8QGQV9 | 52.7% | 56.0% | 56.0% | 49 | 44 | 52 | 200 |
| Dominic alexis#UYUCC9LRG | 47.2% | 49.0% | 52.0% | 53 | 43 | 33 | 200 |
| lorik#20V9R0LGCR | 39.7% | 21.0% | 48.0% | 44 | 55 | 1 | 200 |
| 사커비#U0GUV28R | 52.0% | 41.0% | 53.0% | 55 | 57 | 1 | 200 |